What Is The Gambler’s Fallacy?


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Odds and statistics are fascinating things. They seem to behave in strange and unpredictable ways, almost as if they were alive and had minds of their own. A casino game player can be convinced that results are going a certain way, only for something completely unexpected to happen. This is the nature of statistics, and also the reason that casino games are so much fun.

It is also because of the strange nature of odds that many casino game players tend to buy into myths and superstitions, the vast majority of which are not true. The infamous “lady luck” is one of these superstitions, giving a personality to chance as if it were some sort of living force. Odds are, of course, completely random, and nothing a person can do will sway chance one way or the other. Casino games are about managing risk, as opposed to bargaining with it.

One of the most interesting misconceptions about odds is the notion of the gambler’s fallacy, and reverse gambler’s fallacy. Let’s take a look at these two misconceptions now.

Odds Having A Memory

Gambler’s fallacy and reverse gambler’s fallacy are the notion that if a result has come up now, it will affect how likely the same result is to come up in the future. For example; a casino game player may get the idea that if a roulette wheel has come up with red now, that the next spin will be more or less likely to come up as red again. The same notion can apply to many casino games. If the player has just achieved a blackjack, the next hand will be more or less likely to be a blackjack. The idea is that somehow odds have a reserve of specific results, and if the results come up now, it will effect how likely they are to come up later. Some also say that if a player keeps using the same numbers in the national lottery, that the chances of winning with those numbers increase every time the lottery is run.

But this is not at all true. Odds and probability do not adjust; regardless of how many times a specific result is achieved. If a roulette wheel comes up red, it has just as much chance of coming up red in the next spin of the wheel. A roulette wheel, of course, does not have a memory, and will come up with any result just as likely as any other result.

Falling For Misconception

Because of buying into the ideas of gambler’s fallacy, and reverse gambler’s fallacy, some casino game players tend to adjust their betting based the misconceptions. It is the wrong way to go about playing casino games, and can often result in a player making poor betting decisions.

The idea that odds sway one way or the other depending on results should be forgotten completely, and every player should instead place bets on the sound idea that results are always completely random in casino games. Approaching casino games in this fashion is far smarter, and will result in much more likely to succeed results.

Smart Betting Strategies

The most successful casino game players use sound betting strategies to achieve beneficial results. Games such as roulette have a number of tried and trusted betting strategies, all of which will help the player achieve consistent wins. Roulette is a game about balancing out risk and reward, and the best way to do this is by applying a sound, well thought out strategy. Many online strategy guides are available for popular casino games, and can be found online for absolutely free. Trying out these strategy guides and finding one that works well is the best way to be successful in online casino games.

You Wont Always Win

But even when using a good strategy guide, you should keep in mind that odds, statistics and probability are still at work. There is no way to always win at casino games. Losing is part of the game, and managing the losses is what separates good casino game players from bad ones. Being level headed about loses is the key to walking away with more money. Some players tend to chase losses, which is the wrong way to approach casino games. If losing, the player will increase bets, in hopes that the loss can be won back. This only tends to lead to even bigger losses, which quickly spiral out of control.

If suffering a loss the player should instead stick to the strategy, and the loss will be made back over time. In the end, a strategy should result in the player having more than when they started, even if only by a small amount, which is the best way to achieve success in games of chance.

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